Happy thanks everyone.
Before we get into my props, there were two Thanksgiving specials that stood out to me at DraftKings that I want to cover.
Josh Allen is +240 for the most receiving yards on Thanksgiving, and Gabe Davis is +1,300 to lead the list in receiving yards.
I suspect Davis is closer to +900 topping the receiving charts on Turkey Day. He has a wider range of results than most players, so you could argue that should be less.
Davis doesn’t need the size of other receivers to win this bet due to his big play ability. There is a scenario where he tops the list with something like 125 yards entering the last game of the night. If so, you can hedge your bet by betting on Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards. If Jefferson goes under a total of 88.5, it is unlikely that anyone else will go over 125. If he goes over between 89 and 124 yards, you win both bets.
The bet is on Allen going hand in hand with Davis. I’d say the fair price on the Allen is closer to +200.
With that out of the way, here are my favorite tools for all three Thanksgiving games.
Singletary coming off a top 18 rushing attempt last week against the Browns. It was only the third time he had had disposals this total in 10 matches.
Against Cleveland, Singletary took advantage of Josh Allen recording season-lows in passing (197) and rushing (seven) yards. I think we’ll see him bounce back with a big enough match in the air and on the ground where he eats into Singletary’s workload.
Also, we saw second-round rookie James Cook record his best game of the season, with 11 carries for 86 yards. Singletary dominates the two-minute passing and action, but the Bills can continue to use Cook on early touchdowns to keep the veteran fresh.
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Another thing that works against Singletary in this market is that it doesn’t get many attempts at third or fourth and short. The Bills have a guaranteed quarterback sneak as they line up Gabe Davis behind Allen, driving the QB forward.
There are also some sneaky guardrails on this bracket. If the Lions can keep it close, it will force the Bills into a script heavy passing game.
If the Bills get a big lead, they tend to encapsulate Singletary and let Cook control the business. Buffalo may also want to finally get Nyheim Hines some reps on offense. Any attempts at urgency he gets will only help this prop.
I’m projecting Singletary for roughly 12.5 rush attempts and would bet this to -140.
I can’t think of a better way to spend Thanksgiving than sweating it out on a Lawrence Kayger brace during dinner time (on the East Coast).
I think this prop offers hidden value because the Giants will likely be forced into a pass-heavy game scenario as 10-point underdogs.
Daniel Jones lost his first target, Wan’Dale Robinson, for the rest of the season. This makes Darius Slayton the new wide receiver, although it is not known who will emerge as the No. 2 option.
Cager would continue to be the Giants’ tight end champion until rookie Daniel Bellinger returned. Cager ran a track on 70% of Jones dropouts last week, and I expect to see similar use with Robinson out.
The Cowboys have generated the most pressure in the NFL this season. Jones targets his tight end 14% of the time into a clean pocket, but this rises to 19% when under pressure.
Cager is a former wide receiver turned tight end. He is 6-foot-5 and 220 lbs. It’s not there to stop him. Also, for what he’s worth, he had the second most receiving yards among tight ends in the preseason.
I’m dropping a Cager for about 19.5 yards here and I like the upside on its end.
Cousins have struggled when faced with pressure this season. His yards per attempt drop from 7.1 with a clean pocket to 5.4 when under pressure. It was no surprise, however, that the Cousins really struggled against the Cowboys since Dallas leads the league in strikeout ratio.
Cousins faces another tough test against a Patriots defense that ranks second in pressure rate. To make matters worse, left nail tackle Christian Darisot has already been ruled out.
As a result, I would expect Minnesota to have a more conservative, heavy game plan against New England.
The Patriots offense may also struggle in point placement, which helps reduce the chances of Cousins getting into a game script that sees the Vikings go heavy and play from behind.
I’m projecting this near 238.5 yards.
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